Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
